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The data from China is here from a few minutes ago:
China's GDP data never varies very much at all from its expected. they sure are expert managers of the economy over there. <end of sarcasm>
Preview of the retails sales and the NY Federal Reserve Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Its a busy morning coming up for US markets, with some politics to kick it off:
Temporary ant-dumping measures on some rubber products from Japan and South Korea
Measures take effect today!
June month economic activity data
Retail Sales 9.0% y/y
- expected 8.8%, prior 8.5%
Retail Sales YTD 9.4% y/y
- expected 9.4%, prior 9.5%
Industrial Production 6.0% y/y - a bad miss this one
April to June economic growth in China is (whatever China says it is, right?) 6.7% y/y - in line with estimates
- expected 6.7%, prior
- expected 1.6%, prior 1.4%
6.8 % YTD y/y
The meeting is in Helsinki, Finland. Reports have it scheduled to begin at 6.15am east coast (US time)
Who will keep who waiting? That'll all be part of the posturing from these two tough guys.
In open market operations the Bank has added in (!) yuan via OMOS
- 130bn through 14 day reverse repos
- 170bn yuan via 7 day RRs
No RRs are due to mature today, so a net injection of 300bn yuan for the day
FX options expiring today, these the close by and of size for the 10am NY cut
- 1.1600 696m
- 1.1670 646m
- 1.1675 618m
- 1.1700 728m
- 111.00 USD 551m
Since US President Trump has begun threatening China in the trade war, and implementing his first round of tariffs along with other barriers to trade, China has dropped its tariffs on automobiles from 25% to 15%.
I posted earlier on what is coming up in Australia with reference to the major US events to impact:
The US events will impact on the NZD too, of course, so do check that out.
Not just economic growth figures for the April to June quarter, three is also activity data for June
- For those just tuning in after the weekend, the data is
I posted earlier:
Payment firm Visa inflation-adjusted spending (on its credit and debit cards)
- +0.7% y/y In June
- follows +0.9% y/y in May
Visa reported spending in shops and retail establishments grew more quickly than online for a second month in a row, the first time that has happened since 2012
A heads up for what is on the agenda from Australia this week. I'll get previews posted on approach.
- Monday - nothing of note from OZ, but there is China data, of course:
Some housing prices data from the UK, these for July
-0.1 % m/m
- prior +0.4% m/m
+1.4 % y/y
- +1.7% prior
- says a 'glut' or property came onto market in July
Not a forex mover.
On most days the official People's Daily newspaper manages to run a photo of Chinese President Xi on the front page
The frequency of his appearances on the front page have, though, been declining
More a heads up than a preview, this via Nomura:
We expect China's real GDP growth to slow in Q2 after staying stable for the past three quarters
We expect industrial production growth to moderate further to 6.6% y-o-y in June.
A sharp slowing for the reading from the NZ Performance of
Services Index in the month
- Down 4.5 points from May …. Ok down 4.3 points 'cause May revised to 57.1
A comment in the, well, comments section.
Chris follows up with:
Chris is right, of course.
Congratulations to the French team! Worthy victors. And congratulations to Croatia too, a great effort to get into the final.
It is Marine Day in Japan, markets are closed
FX, with no centralised exchange never truly closes, but any liquidity coming out of Japan today will be negligible
Kevin Brady has called for a direct meeting between US President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping
Brady is House Ways and Means Committee Chairman, he oversees trade policies