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UK fin min Hammond interviewed on BBC TV this morning 19 Nov
- will seek to ease health service measures in a balanced and measured way
- must deliver 300k new homes per year and make a big step up from now
Hammond being interviewed by Andrew Marr ahead of this which I will address in more detail from
The coalition talks continue in Germany this week-end 18 Nov
After Thursday's self-imposed deadline passed without any deal, and almost 2 months after the election results, Merkel's CDU continue to try and thrash out a compromise with the FDP and Greens.
Goldman Sachs' Top Ten Themes for 2018:
1. Global Growth: Stable and Synchronized
2. DM Monetary Policy: No Motive for Murder
3. Drawdown Risk: Bear-Market Warning Signs
The week is little changed
The major indices are ending the day lower.
For the week, the major indices were little changed:
Forex news for New York trading on November 17, 2017
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A snapshot of other markets as the trading week comes to a close:
- Spot gold rose $16.33 or +1.28% at $1295
CFTC Commitments of Traders at the close of business on November 14, 2017
The JPY shorts are at the lowest level since the end of 2014. The fall in the USDJPY this week (and the crosses) may have been helped by those shorts getting squeezed. The USDJPY peaked on November 7th. Today it traded at the
Settle at $56.55, Up $1.41 or 2.56%
US crude oil futures are ending the week with strong gains.
The front contract is settling at $56.55. That is up $1.41 or 2.56%.
Spoiler alert....They are not buying the FANGs
Goldman Sachs is out with their best trade for 2018 and it would be too cliche to just buy Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google.
Total rigs for the week come in at 915 versus 907 last week
The Baker Hughes rig counts this week shows:
The price of crude oil is little changed after the report at $56.43
German economy doing well
The IFO Institute has raised its 2017 GDP growth forecast for Germany to 2.3%. It was previously estimated at 1.9%. This is according to Timo Wollmershaeuser economist for the IFO.
Big 0.6% increase in the current week.
Earlier in the session the Atlanta Fed estimate for 4Q GDP rose to 3.4% from 3.2%.
Prior month was at 23
The Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index for November came in at 16 verses 21 estimate. This is down from a reading of 23 in October.
The prior month came in at 23
In their own words:
Later today the New York Fed will release their estimate for fourth-quarter GDP. Last Friday, their estimate was at 3.2%.
Rises by 0.2% since the last reading
In their own words:
Mortgage foreclosures fall to 1.23% from 1.29%
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans rose to 4.8% in the third quarter versus 4.24% last quarter.
Earlier today in the US, housing starts for October advance sharply to 1290K vs 1135K last month. That was much better than expectations of 1190K.
Sets the line in the sand for Brexit talks
The words speak for themselves.
May responds by saying:
Nasdaq trading around unchanged. S&P a little lower. Dow a little more lower.
The US major stock indices are trading lower/mixed
A look around the debt market shows:
CPI YoY for October 1.4% vs. 1.4% estimate
Overall the data has a little wiggle up in the core common YoY and a little wiggle down in the core Median (vs expectations. The trimmed measure split the difference and came in as expected. Inflation remains well below the 2% target though.
US Oct housing sector data now out 17 Nov
- 1135k prev
- mm 13.7% v 5.6% exp vs -3.2% prev
- 1297k v 1250k exp vs 1225k prev
- mm 5.9% vs 2.0% exp vs -4.5% prev
Strong data but USD largely unfazed.